Once and awhile our Democrat friends make a mistake . When they focused so hard on the 28Th they overshot the 29Th. After crunching a bunch of numbers for a long time here is my conclusion. The 29Th LD has not had a Republican in Legislative office for 81 years . That could all change , after carefully watching the redistricting process the 29Th LD has changed . It has become 3.7% to 4.1% more Republican depending on what weighted data do you choose to use .The 29th LD has entered that realm of 44% to 44.8% Republican . No other LD has moved more Republican in the Puget Sound basin than the 29th LD . In fact the 29th has moved 4th in the State toward Republicanism.
What is the new make up up the 29th LD ? The 29th is far more conservative than the numbers may appear as it is now redistricted . All of these ballot measures are conservative in nature.Initiative 1107 won every precinct by a minimum 52%. Initiative 1103 won all but 4 precincts by 51.5%. Initiative 960 won in 2007 every precinct by 52%. Ref . 71 domestic partners was soundly defeated by every precinct except 4.
Here is the real kicker , Income tax 1098 was so hated in the 29th it lost every precinct by a minimum of 58% ! It’s all about the numbers , when it comes to ballot issues the folks in the 29Th vote conservative . When it comes to people they vote Democrat , why ? In 2006 , 2008, 2010 at the Legislative level the Democrats have spent over $510,000 over the same period of time the Republican party has spent just $ 7,000 . That is ratio of 73 to one on being outspent !We owe a great debt to the Republican folks that went on the ballot against such huge odds. The Democrats have enjoyed 81 years of having the 29th LD at bargain basement rates and that is about to change . Keep in mind that the new 10Th CD envelops this LD and how the 29th goes so does the 10th. Think for a moment in 2014 with a Republican Governor and a new Republican Congressman in 10Th CD the attention and money spent on the 29th could be enormous.
The solution is simple . Going back to the days of 2006 and watching Chris Hurst come into the 31st LD and take the Republican seat from Jan Shabro was a bit of an eye opener . How did he do it? He was at a 6 point disadvantage. He had some name ID having served before and he did doorbell 20,000 doors . But he also had $230,000 , that was the real key. Whoever runs in the 29th will have to have a 2 year plan (2012-2014) and a lot of gumption. There is 11 large precincts that have been picked up by the redistricting process . This is fully 22% of people that know no elected officials from the old 29 Th . This is new territory is 48% Republican and has not been really worked in years. This is formally 2nd LD territory , we know this area well. We know the people and the sign locations as well as the great hard working PCOs that live there. That would be the start basis . You would have to run as a anti tax independent Republican willing to lean left to suit the district and be pro union or a Tim Sheldon type Democrat . Catching the Dems flat footed would be the real key.This area is mostly lower blue collar with a lot of folks depending on the Fort so a military background would not hurt.The 29th has the States lowest voter turnout rate and very poor voter registration rate , why ? It has more predatory lenders ( Check cashing ) than any district state wide . It has more pawn shops per ca pita than any other district . For 81 years this is the Democrat Party on parade and this is the result. If anything this district should be held up as the future under any Democrat leadership. A small footnote Marianne Lincoln now lives in the new 28th LD not the 29th.
There should be no such thing as throw-away district . It’s wrong to abandon those Republicans that chose to stay and fight . Yet for 81 years that has been the course taken and it’s resulted in our State House and Senate in minority status . Treat this as a open letter to the leadership Republicans . I welcome differing viewpoints….. Matt Hamilton PCO 2-48